Canadian firms now need U.S. assets to keep importing. Ohio is the play

For most of the past decade, a Canadian manufacturer serving U.S. customers could do so from Ontario or Quebec and treat the border as a formality. That assumption is now gone. In July 2026, KPMG reported that four in ten Canadian manufacturers have already moved production to the United States or plan to — with nearly three in ten having already shifted some or all output south. For Canadian companies expanding to Ohio and the broader Midwest, the question is no longer whether to establish a U.S. footprint, but how to do it without overpaying for the privilege.

The pressure is structural, not seasonal

Tariffs are the headline, but they are not the whole story. In the same KPMG survey, 61% of manufacturers said their business simply cannot survive without access to the U.S. market, while 57% have paused, cut, or cancelled capital spending and 52% describe themselves as operating in "endurance mode." This is not a group waiting for conditions to improve. It is a group repricing its entire cost structure around a U.S. base of operations.

A second, quieter driver deserves more attention than it has received. On June 3, 2026, the White House issued an executive order on "Strengthening Customs Enforcement" that directs Customs and Border Protection to require importers of record to maintain a bond, a minimum level of tangible U.S. assets, or both. Legal analysts expect the rules to fall disproportionately on importers with minimal U.S. presence, with implementation ordered within 90 to 180 days. Translation for a Canadian CFO: the ability to import under your own name may soon depend on holding real, tangible assets on U.S. soil. A leased and equipped facility in Ohio is one of the cleanest ways to satisfy that test.

Why Ohio keeps appearing on the shortlist

Ohio has quietly become one of the default landing zones for foreign occupiers. JobsOhio reports the state has completed more than 600 international corporate projects representing $18 billion in capital investment and over 45,000 jobs, drawing companies from 42 countries. The appeal for a Canadian occupier is specific: Ohio sits within a day's truck drive of roughly 60% of the U.S. and Canadian population, its manufacturing and logistics labor pool is deep, and — critically — a company setting up its first U.S. operation crosses the border into a market it already understands culturally and legally.

The incentive architecture matters too. JobsOhio offers discretionary Economic Development Grants and Growth Fund Loans that can offset machinery, equipment, building, and infrastructure costs, and the state's All Ohio Future Fund committed $750 million to make development sites shovel-ready. These programs are real, but they are also discretionary and negotiated — which is exactly where first-time entrants tend to leave money on the table.

The market gives you room — if you can read it

Ohio's industrial fundamentals are tight but no longer red-hot, and that shift favors tenants who arrive prepared. Columbus industrial vacancy fell from 9.4% in early 2025 to 6.6% in the first quarter of 2026, with asking rents up 9.5% year over year to about $6.71 per square foot. Cleveland runs tighter still, near 3.8% vacancy, but with rents around $5.68 and softening slightly. Cushman & Wakefield and CBRE both flag Cincinnati among the Midwest markets most attractive for manufacturing expansion in 2026, with rent growth moderating as the sector digests shifting trade policy.

Here is what those numbers conceal. Asking rent is not the same as achievable rent, and it varies enormously by building depending on when the landlord bought the asset and how it was financed. A landlord who acquired at an aggressive basis in 2021 and now faces a loan maturity at higher interest rates has a very different tolerance for concessions than one who owns free and clear. That gap — the landlord's capital stack — is where a well-advised tenant finds free rent, tenant-improvement dollars, and flexibility that never appear in a market report. A first-time entrant negotiating off the asking sheet cannot see it. That is the difference between signing a market lease and signing a smart one.

The leverage trap for cross-border entrants

The single greatest risk for a Canadian company expanding to Ohio is not cost — it is urgency. A firm under tariff pressure and a 180-day customs clock is exactly the counterparty landlords and listing brokers hope to meet: motivated, unfamiliar with the submarket, and negotiating against its own deadline. Urgency, more than any market condition, destroys leverage. The antidote is representation that works only for the tenant, understands the local capital-stack dynamics, and separates the incentive negotiation from the lease negotiation so neither is used to soften the other.

Threats & Opportunities

Threats: The June 2026 customs order could constrain your ability to import under your own name within months, forcing a rushed U.S. footprint decision. Discretionary Ohio incentives are easy to under-claim without local negotiating history. And arriving on a deadline hands pricing power to the other side of the table.

Opportunities: Moderating rent growth and specific landlords facing debt maturities create real concession room for tenants who can identify them. Ohio's incentive programs can materially offset the cost of establishing tangible U.S. assets — potentially turning a compliance requirement into a subsidized expansion. And a first U.S. facility, structured correctly, satisfies the customs test while positioning the company at the center of the North American market.

For Canadian executives, the strategic move is to treat the U.S. entry as a single integrated decision — customs compliance, incentives, site selection, and lease economics negotiated together, by an advisor with no stake in any building — rather than four separate transactions handled by counterparties who profit when you move fast. Tenant representation exists precisely for this asymmetry, and the same capital-stack discipline applies whether you are landing in Columbus, Cincinnati, or the Indianapolis logistics corridor next door.

For a confidential discussion about how these market conditions affect your real estate portfolio, contact Scott Pollock, Managing Partner at Mohr Partners Ohio: scott.pollock@mohrpartners.com · 440.821.8149